10 entries tagged federal reserve. All writing.
OCTOBER 8, 2026 Will the US Government Really Start Buying Stocks? Checking Cem Karsan's "Big Print" Call A 69-minute interview says the US will print money and buy stocks through a sovereign wealth fund, probably after the midterms and after a 25 to 35 percent crash. The headline is bolder than the speaker. Here is what he actually argues, which pieces check out, and which pieces do not follow. OCTOBER 1, 2026 Two Lines Cross on the Page A friend shared a tweet from Bitwise's CIO citing a San Francisco Fed chart on stablecoin issuers' growing Treasury holdings, with "the entire stablecoin ecosystem is going much, much higher." Another friend in the same group chat flagged the chart's scale. A third asked the more basic question: higher in what? I pulled the actual Fed letter to answer both. SEPTEMBER 26, 2026 Eighteen Months and Twenty-One Million A Microsoft executive says most white-collar work gets automated in the next 12 to 18 months. A New York Times investigation says Silicon Valley is already bracing for the underclass that leaves behind. And I keep getting told, in real time, that Bitcoin is the one thing standing between any person, company, or AI agent and what comes next. I checked the actual mechanism — the energy, the bond math, the reserve data, and what AI agents are literally paying each other with this year — and the honest answer splits the argument instead of settling it. SEPTEMBER 26, 2026 Four Thousand Tonnes and No API Central banks bought more than 4,000 tonnes of gold between 2022 and early 2026 — the largest sustained institutional accumulation in modern financial history — because it's a reserve asset nobody else's government controls. Bitcoin's pitch to the same reserve managers isn't replacing gold, it's being gold with an API: instantly portable, verifiable without an assay, settleable in ten minutes instead of a bonded shipment. This is a watching piece, not a verdict — I'll update it as the actual sovereign-reserve data moves rather than wait for a tidy ending. SEPTEMBER 26, 2026 Nine Hundred and Twenty Million, Paid in Cash A reasonable question keeps coming up: if CME can move Bitcoin's price with paper contracts, can it eventually undermine the 21 million cap the same way gold's paper market has allegedly floated free of physical reality for decades? The honest answer needs two separate facts held apart — what CME's contracts actually settle in, and what a real bank actually got caught and fined $920 million for doing to gold. SEPTEMBER 26, 2026 The Exchanges CME Decided to Trust "Nine Hundred and Twenty Million, Paid in Cash" left one honest thread hanging: CME's Bitcoin futures settle against a reference rate built from real spot exchanges, but can those specific exchanges be gamed? I went and found out which six exchanges CME actually uses, what vets them, and what's still genuinely unresolved about two of them. SEPTEMBER 25, 2026 The Fed Wrote the House Rules. Nobody Lives There Yet. On September 24 the Federal Reserve proposed its rulebook for the stablecoin issuers it will supervise under the GENIUS Act — Treasury bills of 93 days or less, a two-business-day redemption promise, a capital charge that starts at two percent, and an automatic wind-down for anyone who falls short. The headlines say the Fed is telling stablecoins what to hold. Mostly Congress already did that. What the Fed actually decided is more interesting, and the list of issuers it applies to today is empty. SEPTEMBER 16, 2026 The Demonstration The Fed hiked a quarter point on Wednesday, 12 to 0 — unanimous, from a committee that voted 9 to 3 to hold in July. Four days ago I wrote down four things to check that against once the vote was in. Here is what actually happened to each one. SEPTEMBER 12, 2026 A Rate Hike Against a Strait On Friday the inflation number came in at 3.4 percent and the futures market moved to better than 85 percent odds that the Federal Reserve raises interest rates next Wednesday. Take energy out of that 3.4 and it reads 2.4 — a whisker from the target. So the Fed is about to raise the price of money in the United States against a number that is mostly a closed strait on the other side of the world. I wanted to know whether that has ever worked, so I went back through five oil shocks and looked at what the Fed did each time. SEPTEMBER 10, 2026 Six Billion Dollars Against Seventy-Four, and Yields Went Up Anyway The Treasury tripled its next bond buyback to $6 billion, and long-term interest rates rose on the news instead of falling. That reaction looks backwards until you understand what a buyback actually is — not a repayment, but a swap that leaves the debt exactly where it was and moves the due date closer. Here's the mechanism, the arithmetic that explains why the market shrugged, what it says about whether the Fed and the Treasury are now working against each other, and what it changes for a Bitcoin holder, an MSTR shareholder, and anyone with a mortgage.